Hello All !

It was 2004 and Smarty Jones was 4-1. I could only sit and stare at odds I could not believe. If I could have, I would have taken a second mortgage out on my house and put it all on his nose. The thought occurred to me. If I could have accessed my line of credit, well...I might have.

I settled for a much smaller wager and winning was never so anticlimactic. There was in my mind, never any doubt.

Now in horse racing, doubt is a killer. But so few times in my handicapping life has there ever been no doubt. Especially when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. I don't have to go into the particulars...20 horses...outside posts...crush around the first turn...3 year old babies. And so on. And why complain about what makes the race so great?

So contrary to that race in 2004, there isn't just one horse for me. In fact, I think that of all the Derby races, this one gives me the most pause. Or at least, pause enough. Some have been all buttons with no sense of feel for anything at all. Others have just been disasters. This one...I like a bunch. But only one can win.

As I wrote after the Wood, no really fast races to go on. Slew lists Goldencents, Orb, Itsmyluckyday and Black Onyx. And just for the record, Lines of Battle. All except the last are coming out of races rated a '3'. OK, but not great. All but the last won those races. As I look around at the horses I have written about since last summer, two stand out. Orb and Revolutionary. That Calvin will be riding Revolutionary and Rosario riding Orb makes it even more interesting. If not difficult. Can it get any better than that?

Nope.

I also like the way Normandy Invasion ran the Wood and wrote that I had thoughts of Empire Maker and Funny Cide reversing themselves in the Derby for an exacta that got me the dubious honor of paying for dinner. Which then leads us to Verrazano. The 'big horse'. Reminiscent of Point Given. I love a big horse in the Derby. One that can get bounced around and survive. Or do the bouncing and survive. It can be a very tough go. Big is a help. Except if you are Smarty Jones.

Then...you don't need no stinkin' big.

I have been asked what my thoughts are about the Derby. I wish I knew. I'm not a better handicapper than you and if I have an edge...it's Slew. And I share that with you so you have the same edge. But somehow, I'm asked so here then...are my thoughts:

Calvin & Revolutionary draw the 3 hole and so he doesn't have to work to get to his favorite place. That favorite place was named after him, by the way. Bravo has to try and get Black Onyx into some sort of position early or else he gets shuffled back to downtown Louisville. Trouble is, Black Onyx isn't the speed type. It isn't until we go out to post 8 and Goldencents do we have any real speed and also first timer Kevin Krigger looking to make headlines. Then all the way out to Falling Sky and Verrazano for the next speed duo and at this point I would imagine we have our first flight around the clubhouse turn.

Verrazano will be kept in striking distance down the back stretch and Garret Gomez will be looking to stick around with Vyjack. I doubt that will last too long though. Through all this, Rosario and Orb will be taking it all in. I suspect from a vantage point around the middle of the pack and begin to move on the leaders somewhere around the far turn. So will Calvin and Revolutionary.

Who will win? Got me.

But if I were to be shot at dawn and had to predict something, I would say my top four would be Revolutionary, Orb, Goldencents and Normandy Invasion. And let me stipulate something here: on a confidence level of 1 to 10...it's a 4. So: here is my plan. And it isn't the first time it has come to this for me. Which horse do I rely on?

Dreaming of Julia! And Wise Dan!

The great thing about betting this race in the 21st century is the opportunity to win it without actually picking the winner! With that in mind, I plan on playing into Derby from the Oaks AND from the two races preceding the Derby. From the Oaks, I'm relying on Dreaming of Julia to be way the best. I will play a double to the Derby with the all button as a hedge, and then add the four horses listed above to it for a real payoff. I will also play a smaller double using Silsita just 'cause Slew says so. Same strategy with the races preceding the Derby, probably using a pick 3.

Now, as to the winner. I have been on Revolutionary from the Saratoga meet. Same with Orb. Love those horses. But if anything nags at me, it is the speed of Goldencents. Also the finish of Normandy Invasion in the Wood. And the size and performance of Verrazano. I mean, I can see Goldencents going wire to wire. Or close to it. He sits at the top of Slew's list. I have to respect that.

But when all is said and done, I think ORB will win. As much a nod to the hottest rider on the planet as to the horse, his connections, and his breeding.

What does all this mean? If means I wish Smarty Jones was running. It also means you most likely have a better idea than I do.

What it really means is that I'm more comfortable picking the winner of some other race that I can link to multiple selections in the Derby. In this case, the payoffs are usually worth it and that is what I plan to do. It is the opportunity that wagering in this century gives me, as opposed to 50 years ago when it was winner take all or nothing. Well, just because you cannot decide on a winner doesn't mean you can't cash a winning ticket. Does that make me a coward?

Well, if it means having to buy dinner again...I'm all in!

It would be nice to pick the winner of the Derby!

But nicer not to have to...to cash the winning ticket!

Enjoy...Good luck...and good 'capping!

Slew